Thursday, September 27, 2012

The Quiksilver Pro France 2012 and the World Title Contenders

Likely to start tomorrow, the Quiksilver Pro France is probably one of the most versatile contests on the ASP schedule. It can be a fun and playful beach break where high flying aerialists shine or a heaving, intimidating cave of water demanding power, barrel savvy, and sheer fearlessness. It was here last year that a teenager from Brazil beat the most decorated surfer in history. With this year shaping up to be one of the most exciting title races in recent history, the Quiksilver Pro France may be a make or break event for a number of title contenders.

 
Who could win the title this year? Mick Fanning (41,250 points), Joel Parkinson (39,700), Kelly Slater (35,450), John John Florence (32,650), Adriano De Souza (30,650), and Taj Burrow (30,150) are all in the running if we are being really optimistic. In reality, I’d say the race is between Mick and Joel. Barring a miracle, Taj and Adriano don’t stand a chance. With two 9ths and a 13th, Taj has already expended his two throw-away scores and will have to keep a lowly 9th (I’d say anything below a 5th is a throw-away score for a title contender). Adriano has two throw-aways (9th, 13th) and would likely need straight 3rds or better for the last four contests this year in addition to the four guys ahead of him suddenly imploding.  
Although John John does have a win this year, he too already has two throw-aways (9th, 13th) and is unlikely to win the 2012 title. That being said, I will never give up on John John until the math makes it impossible for him to win. Yes I’m playing favorites. He’s a Hawaii native and looks so comfortable in the water it’s almost laughable. So yes, I’m a John John fan. Emotional leanings aside, the last leg of the schedule does look to be in John John’s favor.  France, if big and barreling, is perfect for him. Portugal could be a toss- up. Big Santa Cruz is perfect for John John power hacks. And, well, he practically learned to surf at Pipeline.

Kelly’s in a tough position this year: he’s got two drop scores as well (INJ, 13). But he’s also already accrued two wins in the last three contests, including the most recent Hurley Pro at Lowers. I think it’s called being on a role. And he’s also Kelly Slater. So there’s that. But keep in mind that two drop scores means he has to perform nearly flawlessly in these last four contests. Keep in mind that he’s never won the Quiksilver Pro France. This contest could mean more to him than any other title contender.
With about a 5,000 point difference between them and 3rd place, it’s starting to feel like Joel and Mick are fighting on their own. Both only have one throw-away result (Joel: 9th, Mick: 13th). But the differences lie in their wins. Joel, despite making it to three finals, has yet to get a win this year. Mick already has two. One of those wins came at the excruciating expense of Joel at Teahupoo (Joel was winning for about 99% of the heat, only to be routed by Mick in the dying seconds of the final). Joel needs a win here at the Quiksilver Pro 2012 to build up some confidence into this final leg of the year. Right now Mick is certainly the one to beat, as he’s remained consistently strong, with his only falter in the very beginning of the year (13th at Snapper).

How do these guys look going into the Quiksilver Pro France 2012? Only two of our top six guys got a good result here last year: Kelly (5th) and Taj (5th). Mick got a 13th, while Joel, John John, and Adriano lost in the first elimination round, earning a pitiful 25th each. Mick has won this contest three times (2010, 2009, 2007). Joel has won it once (2006). Kelly, John John, Adriano, and Taj have never won it.
Final thoughts. Barring a first place finish at this upcoming contest, I don’t see Taj and Adriano in title contention. With three low scores already, I don’t see Taj with much of a chance either way. John John will need to transcend his years and be ridiculously consistent in these final contests, including the Quiksilver Pro France. Kelly just needs to be Kelly. Joel needs a win here, has anyone ever won the title without a single win? Mick is sitting pretty. He needs to be dominant here, but not as desperately as his fellow title contenders.
Check out the contest here: Quiksilver Pro France 2012

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