Stay Flossie Hawaii

Moral obligations, fantasy surfer, and the Billabong Rio Pro 2013

Alright folks, we're back. It's the Billabong Rio Pro 2013 and everyone is mysteriously getting hurt just to avoid the contest. No defending champ John John. No Owen Wright. No Tiago Pires. Steph Gilmore had Alana Blanchard run over her foot at Bells, managed to finish that contest, AND competed in the following contest in New Zealand just to call in sick for Rio (check out her story here). Am I sensing some not-so-subtle aversion to Rio here?

I won't lie, I haven't been the biggest fan of the Rio Pro in the past. Last year's post is proof of that ("Here we go again"). But the contest last year was surprisingly entertaining, despite my less than tactful comments. So this year I've got a shred of hope and it's because of this I will keep my big mouth shut for a while. Let's see some barrels again this year!

Just one thing: is a contest without John John and Owen nearly as exciting? I'm going with no. I want to see John John defend his title. But mostly I wanted to see an Owen - Adriano rematch. Yes I'm still harboring some bad feelings about his floater shenanigans (check out "Here we go again" if you have no idea what I'm talking about.) Plus Adriano's kind of a dick.

Which leads me to my last qualm: do morals have a place in fantasy surfer picks? I feel like the Brazilians certainly have home field advantage on this one (that's probably putting it lightly) but I am sooooooo incredibly opposed to picking loud, obnoxious, rude, choppy surfers who claim chop-hops. This certainly does not go for all Brazilians, but the stereotype's gotta come from somewhere. Don't get me wrong, I want to win. I hear the prize-packs are legendary. But at what price? It's a tough one guys and I've got less than two hours to choose...

Quiksilver Pro France 2012: Round 1 Upsets, Round 2 Match-ups

Round 1 of the Quik Pro France is over after two days of questionably contestable conditions. Random shifty peaks, largely closeouts, led to a kind of free-for-all where just about anyone could win. Heats were typically low scoring and it was often a battle of the backup scores. With these trying conditions, I suppose it’s no surprise there were a few upsets.

Jadson Andre barely squeaked by Adriano de Souza and Damien Hobgood with a mere 9.04 heat total. Patrick Gudauskas (12.70) beat Hawaii favorite John John Florence (11.67) and Miguel Pupo (6.86). What’s crazy is that a rookie was odds on favorite in the first place. Tour veteran Kieren Perrow beat out two of his much younger competitors, Julian Wilson and Adrian Buchan. Perhaps the wildest upset of Round 1 came in Heat 5, where Dane Reynolds edged out current world #2 Joel Parkinson. Always the space cadet, Dane floated through his heat seemingly without realizing he was even in a contest, and gave an equally spacey post-heat interview.

Of course a great number of the usual suspects won their Round 1 bouts and get to skip Round 2. Unsurprisingly, Taj Burrow, Kelly Slater, and Mick Fanning made it through.

With some crazy upsets, Round 2 looks really exciting. Joel will be up against Trials winner Wiggoly Dantas. Owen Wright vs. Matt Wilkinson will probably be fun too. But what I’m most excited yet incredibly depressed about is the all Hawaiian heat of John John and Dusty Payne. Why do they have to go up against each other?

At least the swell outlook is finally turning up. Let’s hope the wind doesn’t ruin it!

Check out some highlights:


QUIKSILVER PRO FRANCE ROUND 2 MATCH-UPS:

Heat 1: Joel Parkinson (AUS) vs. Wiggolly Dantas (BRA)

Heat 2: John John Florence (HAW) vs. Dusty Payne (HAW)

Heat 3: Adriano de Souza (BRA) vs. Taylor Knox (USA)

Heat 4: Josh Kerr (AUS) vs. Kolohe Andino (USA)

Heat 5: Jeremy Flores (FRA) vs. Yadin Nicol (AUS)

Heat 6: Owen Wright (AUS) vs. Matt Wilkinson (AUS)

Heat 7: Julian Wilson (AUS) vs. Adam Melling (AUS)

Heat 8: C.J. Hobgood (USA) vs. Fredrick Patacchia (HAW)

Heat 9: Adrian Buchan (AUS) vs. Travis Logie (ZAF)

Heat 10: Heitor Alves (BRA) vs. Bede Durbidge (AUS)

Heat 11: Kai Otton (AUS) vs. Tiago Pires (PRT)

Heat 12: Damien Hobgood (USA) vs. Miguel Pupo (BRA)

"No Other Love" - Common Kings

Addicted...



Town (finally) gets some waves

It's been a long, miserable summer for Hawaiian surf. A few small, fickle swells and alot of strong wind led to a less than satisfactory 2012. But in the dying days of summer, the south side is finally lighting up. Here are a few shots of the waves today.

 



The Quiksilver Pro France 2012 and the World Title Contenders

Likely to start tomorrow, the Quiksilver Pro France is probably one of the most versatile contests on the ASP schedule. It can be a fun and playful beach break where high flying aerialists shine or a heaving, intimidating cave of water demanding power, barrel savvy, and sheer fearlessness. It was here last year that a teenager from Brazil beat the most decorated surfer in history. With this year shaping up to be one of the most exciting title races in recent history, the Quiksilver Pro France may be a make or break event for a number of title contenders.

 

Who could win the title this year? Mick Fanning (41,250 points), Joel Parkinson (39,700), Kelly Slater (35,450), John John Florence (32,650), Adriano De Souza (30,650), and Taj Burrow (30,150) are all in the running if we are being really optimistic. In reality, I’d say the race is between Mick and Joel. Barring a miracle, Taj and Adriano don’t stand a chance. With two 9^ths and a 13^th, Taj has already expended his two throw-away scores and will have to keep a lowly 9^th (I’d say anything below a 5^th is a throw-away score for a title contender). Adriano has two throw-aways (9^th, 13^th) and would likely need straight 3^rds or better for the last four contests this year in addition to the four guys ahead of him suddenly imploding.  

Although John John does have a win this year, he too already has two throw-aways (9^th, 13^th) and is unlikely to win the 2012 title. That being said, I will never give up on John John until the math makes it impossible for him to win. Yes I’m playing favorites. He’s a Hawaii native and looks so comfortable in the water it’s almost laughable. So yes, I’m a John John fan. Emotional leanings aside, the last leg of the schedule does look to be in John John’s favor.  France, if big and barreling, is perfect for him. Portugal could be a toss- up. Big Santa Cruz is perfect for John John power hacks. And, well, he practically learned to surf at Pipeline.

Kelly’s in a tough position this year: he’s got two drop scores as well (INJ, 13). But he’s also already accrued two wins in the last three contests, including the most recent Hurley Pro at Lowers. I think it’s called being on a role. And he’s also Kelly Slater. So there’s that. But keep in mind that two drop scores means he has to perform nearly flawlessly in these last four contests. Keep in mind that he’s never won the Quiksilver Pro France. This contest could mean more to him than any other title contender.

With about a 5,000 point difference between them and 3^rd place, it’s starting to feel like Joel and Mick are fighting on their own. Both only have one throw-away result (Joel: 9^th, Mick: 13^th). But the differences lie in their wins. Joel, despite making it to three finals, has yet to get a win this year. Mick already has two. One of those wins came at the excruciating expense of Joel at Teahupoo (Joel was winning for about 99% of the heat, only to be routed by Mick in the dying seconds of the final). Joel needs a win here at the Quiksilver Pro 2012 to build up some confidence into this final leg of the year. Right now Mick is certainly the one to beat, as he’s remained consistently strong, with his only falter in the very beginning of the year (13^th at Snapper).

How do these guys look going into the Quiksilver Pro France 2012? Only two of our top six guys got a good result here last year: Kelly (5^th) and Taj (5^th). Mick got a 13^th, while Joel, John John, and Adriano lost in the first elimination round, earning a pitiful 25^th each. Mick has won this contest three times (2010, 2009, 2007). Joel has won it once (2006). Kelly, John John, Adriano, and Taj have never won it.

Final thoughts. Barring a first place finish at this upcoming contest, I don’t see Taj and Adriano in title contention. With three low scores already, I don’t see Taj with much of a chance either way. John John will need to transcend his years and be ridiculously consistent in these final contests, including the Quiksilver Pro France. Kelly just needs to be Kelly. Joel needs a win here, has anyone ever won the title without a single win? Mick is sitting pretty. He needs to be dominant here, but not as desperately as his fellow title contenders.

Check out the contest here: Quiksilver Pro France 2012

Dorks on a board

This is the best surf clip ever. Brent Dorrington, Ronny Nelson, and Kauai native Sebastian Zietz charge Rockpiles on a stand up. This is what surfing should always be: lighthearted, funny, and just a little bit dangerous. Enjoy!

Estimating Tsunami Travel Times

Want to know how long you have until a tsunami generated in Chile reaches your doorstep? To figure it out you need two things: the speed of the wave generated and the great circle distance between you and the location of tsunami origin.

Wave speed (c) is related to the depth (H) of the water body the wave is moving through:

c = √(gH)

 

where g is acceleration due to gravity = 9.8 m/s² and H is in meters. The average wave speed in open ocean is approximately 200 m/s. This is fine to use in back of the envelope calculations such as this.

 

To find the great circle distance between two points you need the radius of the earth (approximately 6370 km) and the spherical angle (ψ) between the points, given by: 

ψ = arcos [ sin(φ₁)sin(φ₂) + cos(φ₁)cos(φ₂)cos(θ₂ – θ₁) ]

where φ₁ and φ₂  are the latitudes of the starting and ending points respectively. θ₁ and θ₂ are the longitudes of the starting and ending points respectively.

From there, use the spherical angle and radius to find arc length (s): s=rψ. Once you have that, you can find the travel time of the tsunami: t = s/c. Keep in mind that this is very general and rough!

I've generated a Matlab script calculating the travel time for a tsunami generated in Santiago, Chile to reach Honolulu, Hawaii (~11.5 hrs according to my script). If you want to pick different starting or ending points, just mess with the latitudes and longitudes.

Interested in tsunamis? Check out these sites:
Violent Hawaii: Deadly Tsunamis
NOAA Tsunami Website
 

%Long Gravity Wavesclose all

clear all

c = 200; % speed of propagation (m/s)
r = 6370; % radius of Earth (km)
r2 = r*1000; % radius of Earth (m)

lat1 = -35.846; % Latitude of santiago, Chile -33
lat2 = 21.467; % Latitude of Honolulu, Hawaii 22
lon1 = -72.719; % Longitude of Santiago, Chile -71
lon2 = -157.983; %Longitude of Honolulu, Hawaii -158

cosangle = sin(lat1)*sin(lat2) + cos(lat1)*cos(lat2)*cos(lon2 - lon1);

angle = (acos(cosangle))*(180/pi); % angle in degrees

arclength = 2*pi*r2*(angle/360) % arclength between locations (m)

time = (arclength/c)*(1/60)*(1/60) % travel time (hr)

  

Mars is cool, stop whining about money and religion

I just watched this clip on NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Mission (MER) and my mind was sufficiently blown. How cool are we, how ingenious, that we can design a series of small robots to not only travel a distance of 55 million kilometers (that's seven long months of loneliness) but to also successfully hit an inconceivably small target and survive?



I guess I must be alone in that though. You know, the doe-eyed wonder at our ability to create? Yea apparently I'm the only one who's not jaded because just about every comment under this clip was either about the 'ridiculous' cost or how this video somehow affronts their religious views (you gotta love people like that, or where would The Daily Show be?).

I don't care how much it costs, this stuff is cool. For all those complaining about how our government is wasting money on something completely useless, stop for two seconds and think about all the useless stuff you bought in the past week. Stuffing your face with Doritos isn't solving world hunger and all that music you purchased on iTunes isn't curbing anthropogenic climate change. Until you start spending money more judiciously I suggest you sit down. So go right ahead, cast the first stone.

We do these things because that's what makes us human. We do it because we can. And you know what, we'll probably come up with a way to turn a profit on space exploration (or exploitation) sometime anyway. Baby steps guys.

And to all those who felt their religious views were somehow threatened by this video, how indescribably sensitive can you be? And how does that thought process work?

space exploration = science = thinking differently = blasphemy ???

We went to Mars. We didn't blow a hole through heaven, I promise. This huge fear of scientific thinking in religious communities is just silly. The two are not mutually exclusive. Just calm down and give everyone a hug or something.

AI forever

It doesn't matter how many times I watch this, it always make me tear up.